We are them too

Hungarian reserves at record levels

Péter Ákos Bod
Last updated:
05:10 21-05-2012
Created:
16:37 26-08-2010

Emotions reached boiling point when the delegations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission left Budapest without having achieved their purpose.

Now, some weeks later, it would be worthwhile to look back on the situation from a more detached position. Since the review of the details pertaining to the credit agreement signed in the autumn of 2008 remained inconclusive, our government cannot draw on the funds and add them to the international reserves; but at the moment this money is not needed since reserves are at a record level.  

Another consequence of the delegation's departure was that preparations did not get underway for a new, several-year stand-by credit package, despite this having been a key priority for the Hungarian government in recent years.

Even in the middle of a hot summer none of this justifies the arousal of such tempers, yet general opinion interpreted the event as Hungary having won (or soon winning) back its sovereignty, and Hungarians standing up to the IMF. Both serious and not so serious media organs and individuals have urged the Hungarian government to enter into the fray, while business journals have interpreted the news as a negative turn of events.

The large credit rating agencies immediately placed Hungary on a negative watchlist as a debtor, giving rise to the suspicion of a somewhat insidious conspiracy: if we do not dance to their tune and do not want American money, they will immediately threaten to downgrade our credit rating. 

They, over there. Who are they and where are they? The IMF is not a well-liked institution and its reputation for curing economic ills is not a good one; just like a "saw-doctor" in the Korean War who used a simple and radical operation for every kind of limb wound for a long time. Of course it is a given that the only kind of governments that turn to the IMF for credit are those which other institutions would not be happy to lend to on the basis of today's poor economic situation.  The IMF is a difficult partner to negotiate with: in exchange for granting credit it expects the kind of economic policies from its clients that will guarantee their ability to repay. I myself negotiated with the IMF as a representative of Hungary at the time and it was by no means easy. Nevertheless, it is good to know that the IMF is not a commercial bank but rather a self-help organization maintained by various states. Hungary is also a member and our money forms part of the fund. Thus, we are not taking "American money" but rather a loan from money contributed by the states of Hungary, Slovakia, America and Germany, which makes it cheaper than credits on the international money market.  

Many people in Hungary are suspicious of the IMF because the government joined it back in 1982, during the communist era. We could not enter the second wave in 1946 because we were preoccupied otherwise. (Note for young people: our attention was focused eastwards, towards the Russians.) The more fortunate Western European states were members from the outset, while the federal members of the former Soviet Union immediately joined this financial organization as soon as they became autonomous. Of course it is better to be an ordinary member than an applicant, just as it is best not to get into a trauma unit, even if the best surgeon is on duty.   

As far as sovereignty is concerned, it is a legal category: power is the people, embodied by the Diet, the Seim, the Parliament, for example. In the age of open customs and excise borders the concept of autonomy cannot really be applied; small and large countries alike occupy certain levels of interdependency. We will therefore not lose our sovereignty even if the government signs a new contract with the IMF on stand-by credit according to its original intention. 

Our interdependence would be perceptible in our wallets if we started financing our debts from the international money market. Our creditors could then be Chinese, Russian, Saudi, Libyan or American: the players on the market are always "them", with whom of course fair business can be done. Just as credit rating agencies are also "them". I must note that it is not an act of conspiracy to downgrade the solvency of a country if news leaks out about unsuccessful negotiations between the country in question and the IMF.

The OECD, the UN and NATO are "us", as well as every other club that we joined voluntarily. Chiefly the EU: they are us too, because we are in it. Whether we like it or not, we had a reason for joining. It was based on principles and interests. We need to use them wisely.

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