However, the world has changed fundamentally during my absence. Four years ago all the outside world heard about was Hungary's economic problems and its crisis in relation to growth and the budget, but today with the exception of some countries experiencing an upswing, similar phenomena can be observed almost everywhere. After the credit bubble burst between 2007 and 2009 the developed states now need to find a new model for growth.

Thus far there have been two economic models in the world: the Asian state capitalist (China) and the American neo-liberal one. Almost every country has tried to implement either one or the other of these models. Some countries have blended the two but in reality one has always proved dominant. Nowadays it appears that the state capitalist model is beginning to emerge as the victor.  That too is just a trend and perhaps in a few decades down the line the neo-liberal form of economic management will again take precedence. However, it is almost a certainty that in the next decade it will chiefly be big Asian economies following the state capitalist model that will drive the global economy. Unfortunately, Hungary's commercial ties with these countries are quite weak. It is for precisely this reason that we are unable to benefit from the Asian economic boom.

This year the German economy will be able to expand by 3.5 percent thanks to Asian import demand. Hungary will be able to count itself lucky if it develops by 0.8-0.9 percent. In other words, this year the German economy will work off close to 70 percent of the shrinkage it suffered in 2008-2009 and by next year its economic performance will be bigger than at the beginning of 2008. In contrast, even in the best case scenario it will be 2012 before Hungary is able to reach the levels of early 2008.

This is chiefly attributable to Hungary's ties with the East being extremely weak, which is a consequence of the flawed commercial policies of the last two decades. To build up its commerce, a country of Hungary's size should be employing at least fifty people who speak English and an Asian language. Because of our lack of economic ties with the East the growth potential of the Hungarian economy is some 0.6 percent lower than the expected rate and if something is not done to change this in ten years time, state revenues will be 700-800 billion forints lower simply because of this lack of economic connections.

A balanced and well-structured government budget is an essential but not an adequate condition to Hungary overtaking the average rate of growth in the global economy. The growth of Hungary's economic potential will not reach four percent even with drastic budgetary reforms: more is required.  If Hungary continues to focus on the developed world, it will miss out on 0.6 percent of growth. Financial, agricultural and industrial ties should be opened up with the East and be accompanied with a changed orientation in foreign policy. This does not mean that Hungary should indiscriminately switch over to every economic management method used in Asia but merely that in the area of foreign economic ties a concerted effort must be made to implement a significant shift towards an Asian orientation. The East is an important market for Hungary's processed agricultural products with the potential to open up the way to exporting more developed technologies and to cooperation. This would allow Hungary to implement significant developments with countries rich in resources in the next decade both in the spheres of transportation infrastructure and other production-related sectors. Such a change in Hungary's economic policy necessitates a change in direction in regard to the country's foreign policy.