What will this year's and next year's wine be like? After having sampled a particular wine this was the question most frequently put to winemakers by visitors to the Wine Festival week in Buda Castle. The answers they received were almost identical: the wine-makers are putting their hopes in there being one or two weeks of sunshine in order for them to have the chance to make fine wine, but next year is certain to be difficult - more difficult than previous years. There are less grapes, bunches are sparser and in many places the sugar content is far lower than usual.

"There are some vineyards where you have to search for a bunch of grapes," is a comment often to be heard at the stand of the Juhász Brothers wine cellar. Winemakers in Egerszalók recognise that in this particular vineyard they made a mistake with the spraying. Some kind of disease afflicted the local grapes and the effort to protect against this, aggravated by all the rain this year, presented the greatest challenge for vine growers. "The humidity between the rows of vines is always higher and these fungi only need a few hours to proliferate a thousand fold," explain the winemakers.  

The weather affected the harvest detrimentally in several ways: there was frost, it was too cold at flowering time, and with all the rainfall the already weakened vines were more than susceptible to fungal diseases. Moreover, the persistent bad weather impeded access to the hilly country and in many places it was not possible to carry out spraying to protect the grapes.    

At the beginning of September the National Council of Wine Communities calculated that the anticipated grape harvest this year would be 400 thousand tonnes. "However, following the two weeks of wet weather during the meteorological autumn this amount is just a dream," says Csaba Horváth, the council's secretary-general, to our magazine. Even the 400 thousand tonnes forecast would have been at least a third less than the harvest of previous years. Since every additional wet week reduces the anticipated quantity, according to the secretary-general, there will be a further decrease in the harvest of 30-40 percent.    

Domestic annual wine consumption is almost three million hectoliters and it is already clear that there will not be enough wine this year to satisfy that level of demand. At the same time, there is no need to fear that domestic wine drinkers will go without. "Last year was good enough in terms of both quantity and quality, so there is plenty of wine in reserve," says Csaba Horváth. Moreover, there is no need to complain about poor quality since according to the secretary-general vineyards were not all affected so adversely so there are sure to be quality batches too. Especially since the wine harvest is by no means over yet. 

The early varieties may present a major problem since the grape picking season was brought forward because of all the heavy rain in early September, so if the weather is not dry and warm enough in the last period of maturation, then winemakers will have to compete in a race against time with the Botrytis fungus for the sugar in the grapes. Thus there is less sugar in the grapes but the harvest is still going ahead. As Csaba Horváth sees it, the later maturing varieties still have a chance if the weather is kind to them. Winemaker expert, László Alkonyi concurred with this too, though added that his grandson would definitely not look back on 2010 as an outstanding year. In any case, forecasts predict lighter wines with lively acids, rich in flavour and aroma.  

Time for additives?

Experts agree that this year will be a watershed between winemakers. "While last year anyone who wanted to could make good wine, this year will show who the professionals really are," says Csaba Horváth. Gábor Kardos, the evaluation manager of the Szeremley Estate in Badacsony is more outspoken about the issue. As he sees it, the wine produced by wineries run on a commercial basis are less dependent on vintages because wines can also be produced domestically with permitted additives (concentrated musts, acid buffers, artificial tannins, colour stabilisers) that seem like good vintages and thus they can gain ground on family wine-cellars with a weaker vintage among less discerning consumers. Because of this Gábor Kardos fears that more and more people will turn to the more "trendy"commercial wines.      

According to the experts, the final outcome of the conflict between domestic winemakers - i.e. commercial and artisan winemakers - will determine the future of Hungarian viniculture once and for all, which is something Eger winemaker Tibor Gál - who has probably done more than anyone else to promote the acceptance of Hungarian wines abroad - brought attention to years ago. "In the commercial sphere Hungarian wine cannot compete with the wines of the New World or the Mediterranean," says Gábor Kardos. "These days it is the family wine cellars that play a determining role in creating value and Hungarian wine is like a fortress among all the others in the globalised foodstuffs market. So it is up to us if we let it disappear or not. If we want Hungarian wines to retain their character and have a future, the terroir wines produced by the artisan winemakers of the family wine cellars must be supported."

Precious bunches

The degree to which wine makers are in trouble in each weaker year is also demonstrated by marked differences from one cultivated area to another. There is still a chance of a successful sweet grape harvest on the Tokaj Foothills, but if not, the economic problems of today will materialise three to four years down the line. The red wine regions could also easily ride out one or two bad years if they have sufficient stocks. According to László Alkonyi, the Villány wine region is the most able to weather a bad year since winemakers have managed to create a unique image for the wine region there and they have made effective good use out of the Villány name in the area of tourism too, which has served as a supplementary income for winemakers. However, other wine regions have not been able to exploit this opportunity so effectively.   

In László Alkonyi's view it is rather the vine growers who are at risk - or at least those who do not have a large wine-producing basis behind them through which they can sell quality wine. For them a bad year could be ruinous. A poor harvest can also be seen in the acquisition price of grapes. While last year a kilo of quality grapes was being sold for  a mere 40 forints, this year a kilo of the same costs 100 forints. 

However, this price is just enough to stagnate and not enough for growers to compensate for the losses they suffered. The weather of 2010 not only decimated the harvest but made it necessary to spend far more on less produce. While last year it was enough to spray crops three or four times, this year, because of the wet, humid weather, plants had to be sprayed with stronger chemicals at least 10-11 times in order to protect them. Thus, a higher acquisition price was of little help since it is not certain if the prices asked will even cover production costs.

A bad harvest in the neighbouring countries has also driven up prices: in some parts of the Czech Republic and Slovakia growers have had to contend with a decrease in the harvest of 80 percent, which has led to significant demand for Hungarian grapes, must and pomace. Some Hungarian growers have been more than happy to put their grapes on the Czech and Slovakian markets if they are able. This mainly took on a favourable selling form because of the payment that developed there, since in addition to the produce fetching a better price, growers received their money immediately. "We know of growers here who are still waiting to be paid for the 2008 grape harvest," says Csaba Horváth, noting that he can understand the point of view of the vine growers but it would be better if Hungarian growers could satisfy Czech and Slovak demand in the form of wine since if we only sell grapes, the profit will be lower. 

However, because of the bad harvest this year there will probably not even be much chance to do this even if growers do not even sell a single bunch of grapes abroad. Indeed, it cannot be ruled out that next year the demand for imported wine in Hungary will increase significantly.
 

SOUR GRAPES AND SOUR FACES

In addition to suffering a poor harvest, winemakers are complaining about the administrative burdens they have to endure. The Hungarian tax authority, APEH, has announced that it is now making closer checks on grape picking and is on the lookout for illegal workers. "Although the government simplified the regulations for casual workers in summer, having to keep a log on workers on a daily basis takes up a lot of the vine growers' time," complained the general secretary of the National Council of Wine Communities. Presently, employees can be legalised if three required facts are dictated by the employer by telephone, fax or over the Internet.   

However, the system does not store the data and so even if the same people turn up for work, the procedure still has to be repeated and can take up to half an hour every day, in both the morning and the afternoon. Growers are also burdened by having to pay a green tax on plastic containers used during the grape picking.

The European Union's support for cutting down vines has also adversely affected grape producers. A tender, which ran for three years, offered one million forints for each hectare cut down. This was a tempting opportunity many disillusioned and older vine growers took up and even though it has now expired it has left lasting damage. 

A clear indication of this is that twice as many tenders were put in every year than the quantity to be cut down. This year there were 4,400 tenders, which means a total of 2,500 hectares of grapes. Csaba Horváth calculates that the cutting down of vines that can be anticipated as a result of these tenders will reduce Hungary's productive potential by five thousand hectares. Most of the vines were cut down in the Kunság wine region, followed by the Mátra and Eger wine regions.

The wine road to China

After lengthy negotiations one of Hungary's wine cellars has managed to lobby itself into the Chinese market. However, the several hundred thousand bottles of wine requested by the Chinese as a quasi taster were more than the wine cellar's annual production. "The story, which comes from several sources and always has a different winemaker's name attached to it, is probably an urban legend. But it is a good example of the market tendency showing where the big wine producers are trying to channel their surplus and how domestic producers would like to do the same thing.

There would generally be enough wine," says Csaba Horváth, dispelling a popular misconception. In fact, there is an on-going battle for the Far Eastern market since there is a serious opportunity for growth behind the now low-per-capita consumption. However, for the time being there is no solvent demand and only the upper stratum have taken to wine drinking. Yet, this market has the capacity to soak up the surplus wine production of the world so there is fierce competition between Australian, American and European winemakers. The growth of the market is well demonstrated by exports of Spanish wines to China, their largest market, having risen by 246 percent in the first four months of the year as compared to a year earlier.    

However, numerous obstacles are beginning to pile up in the path of Hungarian wine-makers selling their produce abroad. "The appropriate capital or support facilitating access to the market is still lacking but an even greater problem is the lack of a generally accepted decision as to which segment of Hungarian winemaking should premier on the world stage," says connoisseur, Gabriella Mészáros, since despite every statement to the contrary it is nevertheless true that for the time being Hungarian wine is only ‘world famous' in Hungary. Yet, if the Hungarians properly exploited the attributes of the Carpathian Basin, they could make just as good wine as the French.          

EU wine marketing policy regularly supports the introduction of Hungarian wines abroad but if the best quality wines are not taken to such exhibitions it is really like throwing money down a bottomless pit - and there are numerous examples of this. Experts believe that it would be more important to first create widespread demand for wine domestically and to sell the lower category products on the domestic market, thus squeezing out the cheap imports. "It is pointless to flood foreign festivals with the cheaper wines because in quality terms they cannot compete with much better foreign wines," says Gabriella Mészáros. At the moment if the subject of Hungarian wine comes up in professional circles abroad the attributes usually used are typically "technically not too appropriate" and "a little crude", which means some domestic winemakers still have something to learn.  

There are now huge quantities of cheap wines abroad, which according to the experts are incapable of moving up from the lower shelves of supermarkets and are priced at around 3-4 euros. According to the experts it is only worth taking the wines in the higher categories abroad, including those that can beat off competition. Thus, the flagship wines should include sweet and dry Tokaji and of the reds only terroir-based Szekszárd, Egri Bikavér, Kardarka, Kékfrankos, Zweigelt and Portugieser are up to par for now. No matter what value Hungarian red wines made from French grape varieties represent, they still do not interest foreign buyers.

Of course there are some good examples of making a foreign presence. However, these have reached their targets in gastronomy rather than in supermarkets - the former being the only route open to those who cannot or do not want to make several hundred thousand bottles from one type of wine. Csaba Malatinszky and István Szepsy's finest wines have reached restaurant tables in England, while those in the Benelux states and the United States have been graced with the wines of the Tiffán and Gere wine cellars and the Takler wine cellars, respectively.