Bajnai’s job Approval: 2.57/5
Poll taken on 19-21 February 2010
PM Bajnai’s job approval - Although PM Bajnai was less divisive than his predecessor, Mr Gyurcsány, his job approval, based on a 1-5 scale where 1 is the worst and 5 is the best, the outgoing PM scored a mere 2.57.
It comes as no surprise that supporters of Fidesz and extreme rightwing Jobbik gave an average point of 2 yet it is worth to take into consideration that even socialist voters gave an average of 3.28. The reason behind this may be that the rise in support for MSZP, anticipated upon Mr Bajnai's election as PM, failed to materialize eventually.
Prime Minister Candidates' Popularity - No major changes have occurred for months regarding the Prime Minister Candidates' popularity as four out of ten voters (42 per cent) would still choose Fidesz chairman Viktor Orbán. MDF's candidate Lajos Bokros suffered a considerable fall in popularity: at the beginning of the year, 15 per cent would have voted for him had Hungary's PM been elected directly, that ratio now fell to 10 per cent. This could in part be caused by MDF's internal strives.

Party support - Neither MSZP's, nor Jobbik's support changed significantly since January 2010 with the former at 11, the latter at 9 per cent among likely voters. As one third (34 per cent) of likely voters is still undecided or did not answer, Nézőpont Inézet attempts to detect their preferred party choice using secondary questions. A "potential support" is thus calculated, showing the maximum possible reach of parties among likely voters. This number has been left unchanged for months: socialist could get a maximum of 22, extreme rightwing Jobbik 18 per cent. The size of Fidesz's supporter base deserves attention too as it shows a 5 percentage point decrease since January (its voters shifted to the undecided/no answer camp).

Parliamentary seats - Based on the model designed by Nézőpont Intézet it January, Fidesz would, in February, lose three mandates compared to last month and thus get 264 (258 is required for a two-thirds majority). The loss in support for MDF (its potential support shrank from 8 to 5 per cent) resulted in a decrease of 8 seats (from 19 to 11). Based on these calculations, MSZP would have a total of 60, while Jobbik that of 51 mandates. As a result, Fidesz still possesses a two-thirds majority, albeit more fragile than it did in January.
Sample and Method - The interviews were conducted between 19-21th February 2010 by telephone on a nationwide representative sample. N=1000. The margin of error is maximum plus or minus 3.2 percent, with different margins or error for subgroups.
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