"The socialist party must evaluate the last four, eight and twenty years. On the basis of this evaluation we can build a new, Hungarian, democratic left-wing party.  This is something I want, and undertake and promise to do."

These were the closing words of the prime ministerial candidate, Attila Mesterházy, to people waiting for the election results of the first round on the night of 11 April at party headquarters in Jókai Street, Budapest. At the beginning of last week Népszabadság interpreted this as the faction leader all but taking it for granted that he will be appointed to the post of president of MSZP.

However, an obstacle could be placed in his career building if Fidesz secures two thirds of the seats in parliament. If they succeed in this, the socialist faction would only have 56-58 members at most, which could only result in one thing: Mesterházy's supporters would not only be outnumbered in the party but also in parliament by Ferenc Gyurcsány's established lobby. According to our sources, the former prime minister will be able to acquire 29 supporting representatives (including himself) and thus reintegrate himself into political life through a faction. Many people believe it is possible that the ex-prime minister will not "draw" a parliamentary group around himself straight away and a possible interim leader could, for example, be Csaba Molnár, the present chancellor, to whom Gyurcsány bequeathed his MSZP Győr-Moson-Sopron county presidential seat in 2004.

However, there is no doubt that Gyurcsány has set his own agenda.  He did not have Mesterházy invited to the March event of the Hungarian Democratic Charter, but at the same time he took the limelight away from MSZP by introducing the book entitled Hungary on the Move 2002-2010, written partly about himself, on the closing day of the campaign. It was no coincidence either that on the evening of 11 April he did not have even one photo taken of himself with the fallen greats of the party.

Alongside the 28 representatives from county registers, who will gain admission into the new socialist faction (in addition to the one or two individual winners), there will be a further 26-29 from the national register.  Thus, it appears that, when the list was formulated, Gyurcsány skilfully arranged things so that in the event of MSZP obtaining less than 20 percent of the vote at a national level, he would dominate the left in parliament. Since in the end the party obtained 19.3 percent it appears that the former prime minister has secured a narrow majority. Those who owe their allegiance to him are recruited from four kinds of overlapping groups.

Gyurcsány can count on his people from the MSZP's Hungarian Progressive Society platform, the politicians who he helped secure positions of power when he was prime minister, the county presidents loyal to him.  However, the Budapest socialists relationships with Mesterházy's supporters (such as Imre Szekeres) is poor, the last group having been dubbed the "orphans" of the deputy-lord mayor, Miklós Hagyó, in the party's jargon.

The former prime minister's followers likely to gain a seat in the new parliament

THE LEADERS OF THE HUNGARIAN PROGRESSIVE SOCIETY

Ádám Ficsor (president of the platform, former minister for secrecy), Csaba Molnár (MSZP president for Győr-Moson-Sopron county, chancellor), Lajos Oláh (MSZP-president for Hajdú-Bihar county, state secretary for transport), László Varga (president of Societas).

PEOPLE FERENC GYURCSÁNY FAVOURED AND APPOINTED TO HIGH RANKING POSTS IN HIS GOVERNMENT

Zoltán Gőgös (state secretary for agriculture), István Hiller (minister for education), István Kolber (MSZP president for Somogy county, former state secretary for the chancellery), Tibor Kovács (deputy faction leader), Gábor Simon (state secretary for the ministry of social affairs and labour), Imre Szabó (MSZP president for Pest county, minister for environmental protection), Erika Szűcs (former minister for social affairs and labour), István Tukacs (former government commissioner), Ágnes Vadai (state secretary for defence), László Varju (state secretary for development), Iván Vitányi (spokesperson for the Hungarian Democratic Charter)

COUNTY MSZP PRESIDENTS LOYAL TO GYURCSÁNY

József Baracskai (Zala), István Levente Garai (Bács-Kiskun), Nándor Gúr (Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén), Tamás Harangozó (Tolna), András Horváth (Fejér), Zoltán Lukács (Komárom-Esztergom), Béla Pál (Veszprém), Zoltán Varga (Békés; minister for local government)

THE BUDAPEST "HAGYÓ ORPHANS"

Gergely Bárándy, Sándor Burány (president for Budapest), István Józsa, Zsolt Molnár, Pál Steiner