Orbán out on a limb – a hard slap in the face from the banks

E. B.
Last updated:
05:10 10-02-2012
Created:
16:23 26-08-2010

The new Hungarian government can hardly complain that it is not being given enough attention by the foreign press: Viktor Orbán is soon to be hailed as a political superstar in the Anglo-Saxon papers. Even the leaders of major countries are not in the focus so frequently as the Hungarian prime minister.

The common feature of these one-sided reports, which are often not free of errors, is the concern caused by Viktor Orbán: nobody knows why, but whatever he does, he must be feared.

This chorus has now been joined by an article in The Economist of 5 August titled "Orbán out on a limb" which adds a new element to the picture by referring to those who regard Orbán as the Hungarian version of Vladimir Putin. According to The Economist, Putin "brought stability after a discredited and corrupt political era, but via a power grab rather than real reform." 

The article cites examples why the outside world has a reason to worry about Hungary. These include their opinion that the granting of citizenship to ethnic Magyars living beyond the country's borders incited revanchism, and Orbán's replacing the leaders of public institutions and state positions with his pals, as well as his attempt to oust the governor of the Central Bank, András Simor. According to the article, Orbán's predecessors are not safe either: the new anti-corruption commissioner says two previous prime ministers committed perjury. A few weeks later the government passed a tough media law, much criticised by press-freedom watchdogs, cites the magazine, which goes on to quote Krisztián Szabados of Political Capital, according to whom "Mr Orban and his allies now control, directly or indirectly, 80% of Hungary's media".

"The loudest alarm bells started ringing three weeks ago, after Mr Orban's government broke off talks with the IMF and the European Union over the renewal of a $26 billion loan package. During the financial crisis, only energetic arm-twisting and deep-pocketed IMF and EU support averted a meltdown of the economy. Hungary's debt is the highest in the region, at over 70% of GDP. More than 1 million Hungarian households have mortgages in foreign currency, making them vulnerable to swings in the exchange rate," writes The Economist, which goes on to conclude that the cocktail of problems calls for stability, not political adventurism. 

The article condemns the Hungarian government for agreeing to reduce this year's deficit to 3.8 percent but then wanting concessions next year. It evaluates the differences between the government and the IMF as having been bridgeable until a public dispute broke out. "Laszlo Kover, vice-chairman of Fidesz, said the ‘international banking world' had ‘brutally slapped us in the face to make sure we know our place'. Foreign negotiators have different recollections," notes the article, and then warns that the situation could turn nasty and that the government's "shenanigans" could even risk derailing Hungary's six-month period of EU presidency, due to start in January.  

At the same time the magazine recognizes that the there is a partisan, one-sided approach to the situation and there is too much leniency towards the dire political and economic legacy of Hungary's previous, ex-communist rulers. The article emphasizes that "Mr. Orban has a strong political mandate for cleaning house", and points out that in a "winner takes all" political system purges are not outrageous.

"Moreover, Hungary's economy can withstand some wobbles. The current account is in surplus; unemployment is dropping and industrial production is rising; government bond sales have been strong. Barring upsets, Hungary can manage, for this year at least, without the IMF and EU. Having impressed voters with his toughness, Mr. Orban may well reach a deal with outside lenders after local elections on 3 October. His economic programme has some good elements, such as flatter, simpler taxes, and deregulation," writes the British weekly.

The magazine writes that the real worry is over Mr. Orbán's headstrong ways and cliquish habits which, as the magazine claims, hampered his last period in office. It goes on to write that EU membership and jittery financial markets now impose new constraints and that even supporters doubt if Mr. Orbán understands the game's new rules, adding that his tantrum at the IMF, as well as chilly relations with sympathetic figures, such as the European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, and Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, are also indicators of this. The Economist concludes that "This gulf needs to be bridged soon".

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