Six More Months - Opinion Poll for Heti Válasz
Bajnai's rating - Though the PM's approval ratings are higher than in April, now at 34 per cent, the majority of the electorate still thinks he is incapable of managing the crisis (54 per cent). In addition to this, of the 34 per cent who think the PM is the appropriate crisis-manager, only 71 per cent believe him to be a trustworthy decision maker, which means that only 23 per cent of the total electorate deem him trustworthy and capable of leading Hungary out of the crisis.
On Gyurcsány - Asked whether they preferred former PM Ferenc Gyurcsány returning as an important member of MSZP, only 9 per cent of the total electorate agreed and what's more, only 41 per cent of socialist voters said so. It is thus no surprise that MSZP is in no hurry to finalise the party's national election list as Mr Gyurcsány's position is still undecided though according to press information he will be offered a top 10 place.
Party support - Public support for Fidesz fell to 33 per cent, a level last attained in March/April, before the European elections. The reason for this development could be that there is no campaign situation in Hungary, a thesis supported by the fact that popular support fell for all the other parties in the poll: MSZP reached an all-time low 8 per cent and extreme rightwing Jobbik is now at 5 per cent within the total population. The numbers for decided voters are: 45 per cent for Fidesz, 8 for MSZP, 7 for Jobbik. These numbers mean Fidesz has a 2.5 million-strong electorate while some 600,000 expressed their support for MSZP. One in every five decided voters is still undecided.
Dual citizenship - Asked whether they would support dual citizenship for ethnic Hungarians living in neighbouring countries and elsewhere in the world, nearly two-thirds of respondents (65 per cent) said yes and less than one in five voters said no while 12 per cent said they would not vote. This means that five years after the 2004 invalid referendum in this issue, one held "this Sunday" would have a positive result. Thus socialist and liberal MPs now face a two-front conflict after Fidesz had handed in its law-proposal on granting dual citizenship to all ethnic Hungarians outside the country.
Sample and Method - The interviews were conducted between 19-21st October 2009 by telephone on a nationwide representative sample. N=1000. The margin of error is maximum plus or minus 3.2 percent, with different margins or error for subgroups. The analysis was finished on 26th October 2009.
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