A debate has been settled in the last few weeks: it is expected that people who have been granted citizenship through easier naturalisation will be given the right to vote. Although Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has not yet publicly revealed where he stands on the issue, speaker of the house, László Kövér, the Fidesz deputy-president, Lajos Kósa, and deputy-prime minister, Zsolt Semjén, have all made the amendment of the voting law far more likely through their supportive statements in regard to the extension.   

Accordingly, the law could skip the proviso requiring permanent residence in Hungary. Fidesz politicians who have declined to give their names to our magazine have confirmed that the change has an "almost one hundred percent chance" of being accepted. The list of influential supporters is surprising given that when there was a parliamentary debate on dual citizenship the government parties were more cautious.  

For example, the foreign minister, János Martonyi, argued that dual citizenship was not about the right to vote, while others who took part in the parliamentary debate expressed their disapproval of the move to extend voting rights. The extension has in any case been like a red flag to a bull for the left since the campaign in 2006, when István Mikola envisioned a twenty-year-period for Fidesz through granting voting rights to Hungarians beyond the borders. 

The amendment of the law on voting rights will not only have an effect upon foreign policy: Hungarian-Hungarian relations will also be changed on the basis of the decision. It seems that the decade long internal debate within Fidesz between those who support "Hungarians remaining in the land of their birth" and others who regard Hungarians beyond the borders as a demographic, labour and market treasure trove has been decided. 

Through the granting of dual citizenship and the extension of voting rights Budapest has created, and will create, ties that will turn the communities beyond the borders towards Hungary in a stronger way than ever before - and especially those who take up dual citizenship. However, there is a question as to how the relationship will develop with those who for various reasons do not become members of this circle. What is certain is that the extension of the right will not result in access to welfare provisions.

Such provisions are limited to people who have Hungarian residence and pay taxes and contributions, was the response by the state secretariat for national policy of the Ministry for National Economy to a question raised by István Kiss, the vice-president of the Transylvanian Hungarian Civic Party, who had proposed that child support should also be granted for people who acquire citizenship through simplified naturalisation.

Why are they interfering?

There are several arguments against the extension of the right to vote. For example, why should Hungarian citizens be able to decide on the composition of the parliament in Budapest who do not pay taxes in Hungary and who would not be directly affected by the decisions it makes? - was our question to Gergely Gulyás, a Fidesz MP, and the president of the ad hoc constitutional preparatory committee, who replied: " There are millions of citizens in Hungary, for example pensioners, who do not pay tax. I reject the notion that that would divide the rights of citizens in practice on the basis of some kind of censitary suffrage."

According to Gulyás, on the basis of this logic the American actress, Angelina Jolie, who recently shot a film in Budapest, would be immediately entitled to Hungarian citizenship since she paid more tax to the treasury than dozens of Hungarians in the course of their whole lives. He does contend that the argument related to the effects of decisions on people's lives is more well-founded. In his opinion domestic political changes have an effect upon the lives of Hungarians beyond the borders, albeit indirectly. For example, the construction of a bridge or the demarking of a motorway route both have an indirect impact upon the lives of Hungarians living in Dunaszerdahely or Beregszász.  

Gulyás rejects the idea that it is only Fidesz's political interests that lie behind the initiative. "Who would prevent domestic parties from trying to win over Hungarians living across the borders? I believe that the political sympathies that are forming now will not be carved in stone. I am counting on healthy competition beginning between the Hungarian parties to attract the votes of Hungarians voters beyond the borders," said Gulyás, who believes that large numbers of new citizens might "be born" thanks to easier naturalisation not only in the Carpathian Basin but also in Western Europe, the USA and Israel. 

It is a fact that those affected support the extension of the law. At a meeting of the Hungarian Standing Conference held on the matter in November last year, every organisation of Hungarians beyond the borders voted yes and among the domestic political participants MSZP and LMP indicated their reservations by abstaining. (At the same time, the Slovakian multiethnic party, Híd-Most, which was not invited to the sitting, does not support the initiative.) 

Outside the embassies

Even though it seems that the political decision has been made, there are numerous questions about the details that need to be clarified. At the moment it is impossible to predict how many new Hungarian citizens there will be in 2014, when the next general election is due. A certain indication is provided by the data of the register of certificates of Hungarian nationality. The main demand among Hungarian communities in the Carpathian Basin for the document introduced at the time of the previous Orbán government was by those in Transylvania - five thousand out of the one and a half million Hungarians living there applied for the certificates.    

The least demand was in Slovakia, where the one hundred and ten thousand who applied represented a fifth of the Hungarian community. In total some nine hundred thousand documents have been issued; but the question is whether the number of citizens will match this level. If so, not everybody will vote and the willingness to participate definitely also depends upon how complicated the voting procedure will be.

It is clear that for example in Romania the Bucharest embassy and consulates in Kolozsvár (Cluj) and Csíkszereda (Miercurea-Ciuc) would not be able to deal with a voting contingent even in the tens of thousands. Furthermore, the existing so-called status offices or the network of Democracy Centres in Transylvania, which is presently being developed, cannot be used as voting venues for various international legal reasons. Since, unlike diplomatic representations, these facilities do not enjoy the status of extraterritoriality, there is no way that the official act of another state can be conducted there. This leaves the option of postal or electronic voting. This is the way Italians and French citizens living abroad voice their opinion and proxy voting is also an authorised method of voting in Great Britain too.   

It is not easy to estimate the number of voters beyond the borders because the voting system will change. For the time being it is certain that there will be a two-hundred-member parliament. Since it has been decided that an upper house will not be established, the representatives of the Hungarians beyond the borders will also occupy their seats in parliament. There are two scenarios in regard to their election. According to one of them the Hungarians across the borders would vote for the countrywide list and according to the other, the parties would have separate lists reserved for candidates beyond the borders.  Neither of the versions contains the chance to vote for individual representatives but the second method appears to be more complicated.

If the decision-makers decide on the legal details they will still have to contend with certain political problems. One of the achievements of the period since the referendum of  December 5, 2004 is that an agreement has slowly developed in regard to the issue of dual citizenship. In May last year a large majority of Jobbik, the LMP and MSZP voted alongside the government to ease naturalisation. In total only three socialist MPs (Ferenc Gyurcsány, Csaba Molnár and Tibor Szanyi) voted no.  

However, the extension of voting rights could again become an internal political yardstick in regard to the issue of Hungarians living beyond the borders. For example, it cannot be excluded that votes cast by Hungarians living across the borders could decide a Hungarian election - just as in 2009 the Romanian head of state, Traian Băsescu, was able to remain in power mainly thanks to dual citizens. Ninety percent of the Moldavian electorate voted for him. It is not hard to imagine that what those political players that recently expressed their fears about the Hungarian pension system being threatened by Transylvanian Hungarians would say if a similar case occurred in Hungary.   

It is true that there are counter-examples too. A decisive role in the 2006 electoral defeat of the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, was played by new Italian voters, who gained their citizenship thanks to his parliamentary majority. (Fifty percent of the three million entitled to do so cast their vote, among them South Americans who had no Italian citizens among their antecedents since they had emigrated from the Monarchy before World War I.)

Panicking politicians

Another awkward point is the anticipated reaction in Europe. Even though in the majority of EU countries voting rights are not tied to permanent residence, the routine articles of the "Great Hungarian dream" will soon be published since, if the concept of irredentism is aroused in the heads of some panicking politicians in Brussels when they see a carpet portraying Hungarian history in an EU institution, we can expect little good.   

"In regard to international law it is solely an issue for Hungary whether or not voting rights are extended to citizens without permanent residence in our country. However, even though there are other examples of such a solution in our region - we must prepare ourselves for criticism. Many people - not only in Central Europe but in the West too - regard every Hungarian national political initiative as an attempt to upset the status quo," explained Balázs Vizi, an international lawyer working for the institute of minority research at the Academy of Hungarian Sciences. According to Vizi, the special attention devoted to this issue is partly due to the peculiarity of the Hungarian situation. For example, although a great many Russian citizens live in the former Soviet member republics and the Croatians guarantee special rights for their national compatriots living in Bosnia, only Hungarians live so close to the borders of their motherland and in such great numbers.   

Since 2001 until now nine hundred thousand certificates of Hungarian nationality have been requested in the neighbouring countries.

By 2014 the number of Hungarian citizens entitled to vote could increase by several hundred thousand.

The number of dual citizens could increase not only in the Carpathian Basin but in North America and Israel too.

It has not yet been decided whether or not voters who are not permanent residents will be able to vote for the countrywide lists of candidates set up by the parties or rather for a separate register.

EVERYBODY DOES IT THEIR OWN WAY

The practice of voting rights and parliamentary representation in Europe for citizens living abroad is ensured in several ways. In Italy 12 parliamentary and six senatorial seats are reserved for the more than three million Italian citizens living abroad - primarily in North and South America. At the present time in France 12 senators are provided to represent the two million French expatriates. They are voted for by the grand electors, who are the councillors of the Assembly of French People Abroad (the Parisian senators are selected by an electoral college). However, in accordance with an amendment to the constitution, from 2012 the representatives of French citizens living abroad will be given a place in the National Assembly too; they will be elected directly. This may be of significance because the political opinion of those nationals who live abroad sometimes differs from those living in the mother country. At the time of the referendum on the European constitution in 2005, 85 percent of those living abroad voted yes, while in France the no votes won with 55 percent of the vote.     

There is also an example of single-chamber parliamentary representation too: in 2008 Portuguese living abroad sent four representatives to the 230-member parliament. There are different ways of conducting an election. Postal voting is widespread and this method was recently used, for example, by the Moldavian-Romanian dual citizens. Croatia is a special case: in accordance with an amendment to the constitution last year, Croatians living abroad may only vote at foreign representations. This is significant because up until now Bosnian Croatians were able to select their representatives in the Zagreb parliament in their own polling stations.