On the one hand, over the last twenty years Russia's economy has become comparable with that of Nigeria in the sense that - lacking other commodities to export - it can only be internationally competitive economically through exploiting its mineral resources. On the other hand, Russia continues to possess unique technology and although it cannot be denied that somewhat of a decline has taken place in this sphere, it is still a major power and it would be a mistake to underestimate its strength and potential. So which one is the real Russia?

In recent weeks the Russian capital experienced a heat wave and suffocating smoke as a result of the forest and peat fires surrounding it. It was not possible to walk about in Moscow without wearing a mask and the hospitals were unable to cope with patients suffering from serious respiratory problems. When the poisonous fumes emitted by the forest fires raging over several hectares reached the capital they produced a truly catastrophic situation. The number of deaths it has caused so far has exceeded fifty, while the number of people whose health has been seriously damaged by the smog cannot yet be estimated.

Moscow's mayor, Yury Luzhkov, only cut short his holiday in Austria to come home and deal with the crisis after lengthy procrastination. The first thing he did upon returning home was to evacuate his own honey bees. And although the Kremlin quickly dismissed decision-makers employed by the forest service, holding them "responsible for the situation that developed", seeing the state's helplessness public anger - understandably - has turned against the government. Muscovites have to search the Internet to find out how to deal with the situation, where to turn to for help, what kind of medical equipment is worth getting hold of and where it may be possible to purchase respiratory equipment, since information from the state is unforthcoming or minimal in regard to these questions.

Moreover, it is not as if solutions were required for a new kind of problem, as in the case of the recent deep-sea oil pipeline spill in America. Forest fires have broken out in living memory, and unfortunately will continue to do so in the future too, and measures to protect people from them are the fundamental responsibility of the state. This begs the question: what condition is a state in whose crisis management, institutional, and health service infrastructure is so inept at managing a "familiar" catastrophe? For analysts the greatest crisis of this summer has served as an important lesson: we were virtual witnesses to the utmost inner decomposition and dilapidation of the Russian state, which is otherwise showing convincing activity in securing its position in the international arena.

However, the internal decay of a state and its ability to secure a position externally are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, as history shows, internal weakness often fuels a state's external appetite and its urge to impose pressure on others. Many analysts are looking into the growing political influence that Moscow is building up for itself by exploiting Europe's dependence upon its provision of gas. It is well known in economic theory that there are games with foreseeable endings, i.e. the actions and attitude of the players can only influence the course the game takes and its duration, but rarely its outcome. One such game is when an exclusive exporter with unified and strong central control enforces its will upon a host of importers that do not have centralised decision-making processes in place, regardless of the respective internal stability and strength of the given partners. Balanced relations can be created - in this particular case - only by the most helpless (Central European) states affected rallying together and successfully enforcing their interests in Brussels. However, we are - in every respect - still far from achieving this. In the meantime, it would be a mistake to jump to conclusions about any kind of internal weakness based on Moscow's ill management of its forest fires.