As for all positions offering the chance of political survival, there is a struggle within MSZP for the position of European commissioner, too. It is the Bajnai cabinet who nominates the Hungarian member of the European Union "government", but in theory the prime minister can only choose from a list of socialists. In addition to the three members of the Presidium put forward by the socialists (János Veres, former minister of finance, Edit Herczog European MP and Ágnes Vadai state secretary of defence) László Kovács and  left-wing economist László Andor, favoured by the prime minister, will also definitely be on the list. It appears that Andor presently has the best chances.

This duel in Hungarian internal politics, and also the future of the European Union, is affected by Václav Klaus, the Czech head of state, having still not signed the Lisbon Treaty. The Czech Constitutional Court will announce its ruling on 27 October, since the senators in support of Klaus had turned to the highest judicial body with regard to the treaty.

Will Angela Merkel be angry?

The stakes are high: the Lisbon Treaty simplifies the decision-making processes, increases the role of a directly elected European Parliament and creates the position of chief representative for the EU's foreign policy and security. This is precisely what Klaus finds problematic: he believes that a European superstate is being created. In addition, he wants to exempt the Czech Republic from the charter on human rights which forms part of the Lisbon Treaty - the Czech head of state actually fears compensation suits from Germans expelled under the Beneš decrees.

The EU cannot compromise on this issue as it would mean the subsequent amendment of the treaty. Klaus himself admits that the Lisbon process has already been under way for too long to be stopped. In other words: he will eventually have to sign. There is no other option for him since more and more people believe it would not be beneficial for a Czech economy dependent upon Germany if one of the EU's leading politicians, German chancellor Angela Merkel, were to become displeased with the Czech president hindering the Lisbon process.

Officially Gordon Bajnai has not yet named his candidate because of the Czech reluctance to sign the treaty, it is thought that he will wait until the end of October. This procrastination has prevented the MSZP from pushing through what they wanted "in one go". The person with the best chances is the candidate who enjoys Gordon Bajnai's support: László Andor, a board member of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London. The economist was born in 1966 and graduated from the University of Economics, where he also taught after completing a number of scholarships abroad. From 2002 to 2005, when he was appointed to a banking position in England, he was the research manager of the Institute of Political History. In addition to his essays and books on American politics, financial issues, the economic catching up of Central European countries, he is included as editor-in-chief in the neo-Marxist periodical Eszmélet (Consciousness); the president of the editorial board is historian Tamás Krausz, who left MSZP for ideological reasons.

Andor defends the red star

An important event in Andor's EBRD board membership was the institution's purchase, for one billion forints, of a share in HospInvest, the company involved in the scandal-ridden privatisation of Hungarian hospitals (in spring of this year the bank withdrew from the business with heavy financial losses). Andor was a member of Ferenc Gyurcsány's board of consultants on economic policy, and until April 2004 - like the former prime minister - spoke out in defence of the red star, and in the daily Népszava protested against the communist symbol being condemned in the same category as the swastika.

The same newspaper featured his 2 December 2004 article addressing the issue of dual citizenship, in which he supported the government's rhetoric about the danger to the country's budget from Hungarians living outside national borders. Should people take Hungarian citizenship en masse, "one would have to reckon with (...) the benefits legally due to every citizen not simply suffering a fall in real value, but being frozen and the system being restructured," wrote Andor five years ago. However, in his article that appeared in French in Le Monde Diplomatique in February 2000, he stated that the millennium celebrations hosted at the time by the Orbán government were evoking the values of the "reactionary ruling classes" between the two world wars, that the prime minister's advisors were making anti-Semitic statements, and that they had declared the rehabilitation of "several important war criminals".

There may be yet a master stroke

János Veres, who was recommended in first place by the MSZP, may feel at a disadvantage to Bajnai's candidate because - with a little exaggeration - he is declaring his own suitability even to the surveillance cameras. Although last spring the main argument against his appointment to the post of financial minister was his lack of economic policy credibility, Veres has now brushed aside this criticism that held him partly responsible for the record 2006 budget deficit. He went on to state that he has an adequate knowledge of German and English. Although according to his parliamentary data sheet he speaks the two languages at a "conversational" level (which is not sufficient for the post), he said last week on Hungarian Television that he would presently be sitting a language exam.

At the same time Veres may just be setting up a smokescreen, and in MSZP tradition he might actually be satisfied with another position. This is a frequent game played by the socialists; for example, if someone would like to be a member of the Presidium, they apply for the seat of vice-president, and whoever wants to be deputy-vice-president starts off aiming for vice-president - i.e. everybody "aims one higher" than the position they want in order to win the desired grade. The use of this strategy can also be discerned from information in Népszabadság, although this is vehemently disputed by Veres. According to this information the former minister of finance is actually aiming to become a member of the EBRD's board, since a position will open up here with the possible appointment of László Andor to the post of EU commissioner. However, since this position is dependent on which government is in power, the former finance minister would feel safe as the bank's vice-president - a position previously filled by one-time Prime Minister Miklós Németh - because it would be far harder for a right-wing government to remove him from it. According to this scenario, László Andor would be Hungary's new EU commissioner. In any case, he already has mass support to step into this role - at least according to the Progressive Institute, affiliated with Ferenc Gyurcsány's circle, which made a survey of the support for the candidates. Of the 500 people questioned by telephone, 28 percent voted for László Andor, 25 for László Kovács, 13 percent chose János Veres, while six percent voted for Ágnes Vadai and Edit Herczog, respectively. However, there is a fly in the ointment since the research does not include what percentage of those questioned were actually able to identify the candidates. It is quite obvious that a few weeks ago Andor, who was then only known in the small circle of economists, was not as widely known as László Kovács or János Veres.

Kovács, who came second in the survey, is of course lobbying for his renomination and is using Veres's tactics to do so. He put himself forward for the position of prime minister, letting his fellow party members know that if they did not want him to appear as yet another name on the list of candidates awaiting a position in Budapest, they should support his renomination for the post in Brussels. Edit Herczog, behind whom observers of socialist power games do not see a serious political support, has thus far not deployed a similar strategy. The European parliamentary representative has rather been nurturing close ties with industrial lobbies, the energy and telecommunications sectors in particular.

It is still possible that Gordon Bajnai will solve the situation with a master stroke. He has been nurturing a good relationship with José Manuel Barroso, the president of the Commission, to secure the post of commissioner for regional development for Hungary, in addition to building his own political future by nominating himself for the job. However, there are serious arguments against this scenario, since by doing this Bajnai would further damage MSZP's in any case poor election prospects.

Faceless technocrats, professional politicians

Fifteen years ago the European Commission, which is regarded as the government of the European Union, was mainly manned by faceless technocrats, but now the majority of its members are politicians. Most of those in the Commission of re-elected Manuel Barroso who are about to resign have long domestic political careers behind them: for example, Jacques Barrot of France, who is responsible for justice and human rights, was an MP in Paris for thirty years and had held several cabinet positions. The Commissioner for social affairs and equal opportunities, Vladimír Špidla, was prime minister of the Czech Republic between 2002 and 2004. If it came to it, the majority of these politicians would give up their positions as commissioners for their domestic responsibilities. This is just what happened in the case of Italian Franco Frattini, who had been responsible for justice in the EU and became minister for foreign affairs in his country in May 2008.

The commissioners enjoy diplomatic immunity, cannot be recalled and in theory represent pan-European interests. However, although the post of commissioner is an important one, the real power is in the hands of the director-generals who control the apparatus of the respective "ministries". It is not only Hungary that has been biding its time in nominating candidates; the other EU countries on its borders and even the big member states have also held back. It is believed that French president Nicolas Sarkozy would like the position of economic commissioner for the former commissioner Michel Barnier, who is presently a European MP. German chancellor Angela Merkel will wait until after coalition talks to nominate her candidate. The picture is not much clearer in Austria and Slovakia, either, in regard to nominations. The Romanians stated at an earlier point that they would like to win the commission for agriculture but in reality, a larger member has a greater chance of obtaining this. There is still no candidate in Bucharest, where the fall of the government has made the situation more complicated.