A left-wing party ran Fidesz very close at the EU elections. True, it was not a domestic competitor: the Labour Party in Malta gained 55%, which is very close to the result of the Hungarian force that achieved the biggest victory in Europe with its 56%. The success is somewhat overshadowed by the 36% turnout in Hungary, which is 2.5% below that of five years ago - even if such participation still rates as high in the region (the same figure was 27% in Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania and 19% in Slovakia). Thanks to active Hungarian voters, parties held their positions across the borders, too. Similarly to president László Sólyom, Viktor Orbán also highlighted this fact. (In addition, both of them kept referring to the Carpathian Basin, thus sending a message to Slovakian politicians who are fighting against the use of this expression.) However, regardless of victory, people on the Fidesz stage on election night were not too much in the mood to party. Many expected one more than the 14 seats gained, others were frowning at the 14.7% achieved by Jobbik, worth 3 seats, or were groaning about the MDF (Hungarian Democratic Forum) making it with Lajos Bokros as a 'liability' (5.3%, one seat).

Analysis is left for Saturday: the party has previously kept quiet about its national congress to be held on that day. Since neither the person of the party leader, Viktor Orbán, nor that of the deputy leaders will change, the only item that might cause some excitement is the determination of steps to be taken following the EU vote. The major topic of discussion will be how the hinterland of the MSZP-SZDSZ couple has been shaken. Ever since 2002 the two governing parties have assisted one another in giving the radicals an advantage; not just by knocking the economy out - as a first evaluation of results at the Fidesz campaign centre put it -, but also in their campaign against 'extremes'. To put it simply, Jobbik enjoyed more advertising space than it paid for: on its election posters, SZDSZ made way for 'the people of the Árpád bands' (those carrying the Árpád House flag, a flag with four red and four white bands on it) and MSZP lashed out at Gábor Vona and his party with such vehemence that casting a vote for Jobbik eventually became a means of punishing the governing party.

MSZP crushed to death

Socialists had to face a double shock on 7th June: they had calculated 'the price' they would have to pay for a Fidesz victory, but they were completely taken aback by success on such a large scale. It was not just the pale faces that bore testimony to the shock, but also an utterance by Katalin Szili, who has once again become a left-wing hope in the light of the 35% she gained at the mayoral elections in Pécs. She said: "they crushed us to death". Another factor that had a strong impact on the mood of MSZP's inner circles was that Jobbik followed close behind, its result was only 2.5% less than the 17.3% attained by the socialists. The fact that the left was forced to take second place behind the radicals in seven counties (Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, Hajdú-Bihar, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Heves, Pest, Nógrád) was even more intimidating.

This turned the political landscape upside down. MSZP, having been degraded to a medium-sized party, cannot count on SZDSZ any more, either: the liberals suffered a humiliating defeat by collecting a mere 2.1% of votes on Sunday. Even Lehet Más a Politika (Politics Can Be Different), which free democrats used to refer to as a bunch of bicycle couriers, achieved a better result - 2.6% of people voted for the joint list with the Humanist Party.

It only adds to the troubles of the socialists that the parties rejecting the policies of the Bajnai government took more than 75% of the votes everywhere - except for Budapest. Furthermore, even taken together, MSZP's and SZDSZ's results were below 20% in 16 counties. MSZP leader Ildikó Lendvai has already put forward a theory in explanation of their defeat on election night. According to this theory, Viktor Orbán, who invited Gábor Vona to his civic circle in 2002, is responsible for letting the national radical ghost out of the bottle. Life, however, refutes such an idea of Jobbik assisted by Fidesz members who are becoming more radicalized. Although many former Fidesz voters cast their vote for the list lead by Krisztina Morvai, Jobbik was below the national average in several right-wing strongholds: the 1st, 2nd and 12th districts of Budapest or the county of Vas.

Some voters who in the past supported the socialists seem to have punished their former favourite by voting for Jobbik. This is clearly seen in cities that previously used to be left strongholds, like Miskolc, Ózd, Kazincbarcika, Tiszaújváros, Nyíregyháza or Hatvan. The number of Fidesz supporters also increased in these towns, therefore the major advances Jobbik made cannot be solely put down to the radicalization of Orbán-voters (in Miskolc, for example, Fidesz gained 45.8% of the votes while MSZP and Jobbik received 22.7% and 20.8%, respectively).

One in twenty-two

Some analysts associate the breakthrough of Jobbik with the counties that have a significant Roma population, therefore with problematic, conflict-ridden coexistence. The distribution of votes in regions whose economy is experiencing difficulties paints a more exact picture. Counties where Jobbik came second are all (except for Pest) found in the region of Northern Hungary, which is in crisis. This is where the votes given to the left were most 'sporadic'. Support for MSZP-SZDSZ in Hajdú-Bihar equalled 13.8%, which means that 4.5% of the electorate, one in every twenty-two people, voted for the parties backing the prime minister, Gordon Bajnai. Above all, the free democrats have to live with a particular disgrace: they could not stagger above 2% anywhere in the country except for the county of Pest and were left well below the 5% threshold even in Budapest. To put it another way, SZDSZ could not wriggle out of the pincers embodied by MDF and LMP, not even with its campaign based on the 'threat of brown shirts'. Liberals think several of their voters 'ended up' at these two parties and many others simply stayed away from polling stations.

Bokros, a eurosceptic?

Although Gábor Fodor remains leader until the meeting of the party's national council on Saturday, the general mood within the party suggests he is unlikely to continue to lead SZDSZ. The following names have been mentioned as possible successors: Péter Gusztos, Miklós Hankó Faragó from Szombathely, László Csőzik from Érd and István Szent-Iványi, who has just dropped out of the EP (however, he does not enjoy the support of previous party leaders; consequently, he is dragging his feet over leading a party without a parliamentary faction). The first two candidates are most of all backed by János Kóka faction leader, the latter two are closer to Fodor's heart. The question is though, for whom can they drum up enough support, and who, if anyone, will be willing to take the role of liquidator for SZDSZ, since the party is in a deep stupor. Many think there is no chance for changes as long as the party backs Gordon Bajnai's government (without the opportunity of influencing decisions).

Also, the relationship between the parliamentary faction and the party leadership is problematic - many urge a debate in order to clarify issues together with the return to the so-called fundamental liberal values. They would discuss how it was possible for the faction in parliament to accept the idea of real estate tax - something rejected by the party leadership and Gábor Demszky, mayor of Budapest - and to extend it to include businesses. On the other hand, most members do not spend time mulling over such minute details, they have switched to survival mode: they trust that Kóka will be able to negotiate winning places in MSZP's list. Real pessimists go even further and say this boat has already left, such places are worth a fortune in the socialist party's list, therefore socialists will be unlikely to consider their former coalition partner's needs when it comes to the fight for places. The emergency exit towards MDF (Hungarian Democratic Forum) also seems to be closing. Before the elections, Bálint Magyar suggested that the smaller parties should join forces, but probably no one at MDF would run to grab this opportunity with SZDSZ falling apart.

Such a move is even more improbable in the light of the fact that MDF is celebrating its miraculous survival by getting into another internal fight. Lajos Bokros, who is not even a member of the party, demanded the expulsion of everyone in opposition to Ibolya Dávid - party members who torpedoed the re-formation of the MDF faction in parliament, namely Kálmán Katona, Zoltán Hock and András Pettkó - with a vehemence that even an "ancient Antallite" (a member since the very beginning, i. e. since the time of József Antall, first prime minister of Hungary after 1989) would have been proud to have displayed. "What have those people who are interested in pulling the party back got to do with it?" - asked the former socialist minister. Bokros might have other surprises in store, too: he might not be joining the group of the European People's Party in the European Parliament, at least for the few months he will be working in Brussels. (It is rumoured that the party's leadership wants to bring him home for their campaign at the national elections, thus he would be replaced by György Habsburg at the EP.) The British Conservatives are planning to set up a new euro-sceptic group in the parliament with the Czech ODS and the Polish PiS amongst others. Since members of a group have to come from at least 7 different countries, the British are in an urgent search for further partners. According to our sources in MDF, they could be one such possible partner, which explains tory interest in the party. Last September, for example, saw Mark Francois, shadow secretary for European affairs, giving a speech at the national congress of MDF, while Ibolya Dávid paid a visit to London at the end of May, where she was also received by David Cameron, leader of the Conservative Party.

Parties and lessons

1. Fidesz-KDNP (Hungarian Civic Union - Christian Democratic People's Party)

The alliance added a further 173 thousand votes to the 1.458 million it gained at the EP elections in 2004. At the same time, Fidesz managed to mobilize 2.3 million supporters at the national elections in 2006  - where turnout was almost double than that of this year - and at the referendum of March 2008 the "new majority" camp counted more than 3 million members. This means that although the opposition party has not performed outstandingly well compared to its achievements in the past, the current result in a national election, i. e. 56% of votes, would still mean a historic breakthrough: 70% of seats to be taken by Fidesz.

2. Magyar Szocialista Párt (Hungarian Socialist Party)

The performance of MSZP is worse than that at the time of the political changes: it had 535 thousand supporters at the national elections of 1990 (and MSZMP, the Hungarian Socialist Workers' Party, still in existence, also received 180 thousand votes, which wanted to see the status quo unchanged) its votes are scarcely above half a million now. The only success the party had was that similarly to 2004, it also won 90% (37 votes) of the total votes cast in Csenyéte, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county. Were national elections to be held this Sunday, MSZP would suffer a defeat  in all electoral districts.

Votes backing the old regime/current government (number of party supporters)

Parliamentary elections, 1st round, 1990:
MSZP + MSZMP   =  715 797

EP elections, 2009:
MSZP + SZDSZ   =  565 026

3. Jobbik (Movement for a Better Hungary)

Jobbik gained over 40% of votes in two towns, Rakamaz and Tiszavasvári - in the latter, it left Fidesz and MSZP behind by 15 and 27 percentage points respectively (this is where the victim of the lynching in Olaszliszka, Lajos Szögi lived). The 14.77% received by Jobbik means that Gábor Vona and his fellows would also have passed the parliamentary threshold at a national election with a 100% turnout. Only a smaller part of their supporters are accounted for by previous MIÉP devotees: while at the national elections in 1998 the formation led by István Csurka really took off in the districts of Buda by winning 8-12%, Jobbik's results were below 10% in these "elite" districts. However, the party took 15% of votes in the 18th district of Budapest and Csepel, and 21% in Miskolc, which had proven to be an impregnable fortress for MIÉP in the past.

Radical votes (number of party supporters)

Parliamentary elections, 1st round, 1998:
MIÉP = 248 825

EP elections, 2009:
Jobbik = 427 213

4. Magyar Demokrata Fórum (Hungarian Democratic Forum)

Compared to the EP elections of 2004, MDF lost more than 10 thousand votes, but - due to the lower turnout - even this was enough to achieve 5.3%. The party of Ibolya Dávid has shown the most even performance: it was between 4 and 6% in each county and exceeded 6.5% in Budapest.

5. Lehet Más a Politika-Humanista Párt (Politics Can Be Different - Humanist Party)

LMP achieved its greatest success - winning 51% of the 37 votes cast - in Drávapiski, formerly an SZDSZ stronghold. Still, the real breakthrough was that the party managed to go above the parliamentary threshold in 11 disctricts of the capital, beating SZDSZ in several places.

6.  Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége (Alliance of Free Democrats)

In four counties (Békés, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok and Nógrád) even the Hungarian Workers' Party performed better than the liberals and in the county of Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, MCF Roma Összefogás (Hungarian Roma Forum, Roma together) left them behind by a good 1.5%.

7. Munkáspárt (Hungarian Workers' Party)

The Workers' Party hardly existed in 2004, but it managed to further halve its supporters this year: the number of Gyula Thürmer's active devotees dropped from 56 thousand to 28 thousand.

8. MCF Roma Összefogás (Hungarian Roma Forum, Roma Together)

Except for managing to beat SZDSZ in the county of Szabolcs, the Orbán Kolompár-led MCF could not achieve any other successes  worth mentioning. Their true defeat lies however, in the fact that Jobbik excelled in all the settlements where attacks on the Roma claimed the lives of several victims - villages that were also included in the film prepared by the organisation for its election campaign - and they hardly received any votes.