A new model could develop in the distribution of work between a strong government of a member state and the permanent presidency. At the present time it cannot be established how many tasks and responsibilities will devolve upon the old system of a half year revolving presidency in light of the changes in the Lisbon Treaty and the new system of a permanent presidency. What is certain is that there is no recipe for success in the new situation.

The importance of the presiding member state, its EU experience, good or bad reputation, the stability of its domestic political situation, the public mood in the EU and the global political situation are all equally important ingredients for success. However, because of the Lisbon Treaty, the permanent president of the European Council and the traditional EU presidency (i.e. the revolving presidency of the Council of the European Union) will have to work together in a new system that is not yet chartered.

The Roma issue in Europe, integration of the Western Balkans, the water and Danube strategy, and the expansion of the Schengen zone will all form part of the Hungarian presidency’s agenda. The most important challenge has already been laid down: since a definite agreement could not be reached, a new EU budget plan will probably have to be elaborated by 2011, and so any such work on the budget will certainly extend into next year. The onus to deal with EU economic strategy extending to 2020 and preparation of the EU budget for 2013-2020 – tasks of key importance – will also fall upon Hungary.

“Next time bang the nail into the horse shoe properly,” goes the ditty, which could also serve as good on-going advice for politicians and countries aspiring to the EU presidency since before the Hungarian presidency the operation of the revolving presidency was at times run under and at other times above expectations. Slovenia, the first post-communist EU presidency holder adequately carried out its responsibilities at the beginning of 2008. However, it was only capable of properly meeting its challenges through close cooperation with Brussels and rather concentrated on succeeding in regional, cultural projects instead of even trying to tackle unrealisable global political objectives. Slovakia almost hid from the public gaze rather like a poorly performing pupil who wishes to keep a low profile at the back of the classroom.

This was followed by Nicolas Sarkozy riding a wave of success and kicking off the French half-year term with an impetus that evoked the grandeur of old. There was a breakthrough in climate policy, the Mediterranean Union was formed, and the president acted as an intermediary in the Russian-Georgian conflict and reacted rapidly to the ripple effect of the global economic crisis. However, Sarkozy was barely willing to let go of the presidency when acting as the embodiment of the EU in trying to mediate in the Middle East crisis. This task was taken on by the Czech Republic, which was next to take over the presidency, but it proved too much for Prague’s diplomacy which began its work with the aspiring motto: “Europe without limits”. Despite the confident start, Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek was forced to leave the presidency in mid-term after a vote of no confidence and there was little praise for Prague from this point on.

Sweden took over the presidency in the second half of 2009 at the nadir of the European political and economic crisis. According to Martin Schulz, the European parliamentary representative for the Social Democratic Party of Germany, Stockholm exerted little influence: "Sarkozy and Merkel did not show their cards and people said that the Swedish prime minister did not know what was going on.” At the end of 2009 Herman Van Rompuy was elected as the first full time president of the European Council. This all but sidelined the 2010 revolving presidency of Spain, which was and is struggling with severe economic problems. The situation is no different for Belgium, since it took over the revolving presidency with Yves Leterme as the head of the umpteenth, caretaker lame duck government which, using the Lisbon Treaty as an excuse, sits back and is happy to let the show be stolen by Van Rompuy, who is also Belgian.

At the same time, the Hungarian government will have the opportunity to consolidate a much-alluded-to Central Europe through the increased diplomatic activities that now come along with the presidency, and better instil the concept into public consciousness that the region has its own interests that often do not tally with those of the continent’s western half. The EU presidency is now a game with myriad roles.  By balancing close cooperation with the determined representation of our own interests the Hungarian presidency could be a success – we just need to make sure that all the nails in that horse shoe are in place.